erikbays asks:

In Trump v. Anderson, will the Supreme Court rule that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?

Started Jan 12, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 04, 2024 03:00PM UTC

On 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump was disqualified from becoming president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (CBS News, Colorado Supreme Court - Anderson v. Griswold). The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal and has scheduled oral arguments for 8 February 2024 (Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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NOTE 9 February 2024: We have launched a companion question asking about the number of Supreme Court Justices voting against the Colorado Supreme Court decision here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 4 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88%
No 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 170
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 305
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.083144
2.
-0.083144
3.
-0.083144
4.
-0.081344
5.
-0.078367

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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