Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 August 2024, will the United States publicly announce that it has deployed regular ground armed forces to Yemen for the stated purpose of fighting Houthi forces?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Houthi forces continue firing missiles and drones at commercial ships off the coast of Yemen, the US and allies may further escalate their role and presence in the country (US Dept. of Defense, Al-Monitor, Atlantic Council). For the purposes of this question, "Yemen" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, and "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces, e.g., Navy SEALs, Army "Delta Force"). The presence of ground forces evacuating nationals or based at diplomatic missions would not count, but the announced deployment of regular ground armed forces for the stated purpose of training forces in Yemen to fight Houthi forces would count. The question would close upon an announcement of the actual presence of armed forces on the ground, and the announcement of the deployment of forces for noncombat purposes (e.g., humanitarian relief, mine clearing from noncombat areas) would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 1.00% 0% 0% -2.42%
No 99.00% 0% 0% +2.42%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username