What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for June 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in early 2024 despite multidecade highs in interest rates (CNBC, Department of Labor - Initial Unemployment Claims 29 February 2024). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in July 2024 (FRED).
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The question closed "At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2%" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.6% | 0% | |
| At least 3.6%, but less than 3.9% | 14% | |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2% | 81% | |
| At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5% | 5% | |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8% | 0% | |
| At least 4.8%, but less than 5.1% | 0% | |
| At least 5.1%, but less than 5.4% | 0% | |
| 5.4% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 171 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 181 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 444 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
