SE_Meyer asks:

When will the price per metric ton of cocoa next close below $4,200, according to Trading Economics?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Prices for cocoa, the main ingredient for the production of chocolate, have reached all-time highs as El Niño impacts crops in West Africa, which produces much of the world's supply (Yahoo, NASDAQ, BBC). The outcome will be determined using price data (USD/MT) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, select "1Y" on the lower left of the chart). On 1 March 2024, the price per pound was USD 6,769.00.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 19 October 2024" with a closing date of 19 October 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 May 2024 0%
Between 4 May 2024 and 28 June 2024 0%
Between 29 June 2024 and 23 August 2024 0%
Between 24 August 2024 and 18 October 2024 0%
Not before 19 October 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 142
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000205
2.
-0.000205
4.
-0.000186
5.
-0.000125

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username