Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 October 2024, will the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report a situation or projection that any part of the population of Sudan has or will reach "Phase 5 - Famine" of acute food insecurity?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The IPC is a "multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making," which analyzes, among other things, areas of the world with acute food insecurity, including Sudan (IPC - Overview, Action Against Hunger). The outcome will be determined using table and map details as published by the IPC (IPC - Sudan, see "Latest related analyses"). In its update released 12 December 2023, IPC indicated that a population of 4,898,486 people was projected to reach Phase 4 between October 2023 and February 2024, but none reaching Phase 5 (IPC - Sudan Projection Update 12 December 2023). From this page, you can look at past releases by clicking "--- select ---" next to "Select Another Analysis." The question will close as of the release date of the relevant release, irrespective of whether it states that a part has or will reach Phase 5.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 47.80% +0.20% +0.20% -5.00%
No 52.20% -0.20% -0.20% +5.00%

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