When will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As fighting in Gaza continues, concerns remain that there may be a major escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (Yahoo, Al Arabiya, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 13 May 2024 0% 0% 0% -6.00%
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024 3.76% -0.04% -0.16% -3.24%
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024 10.84% 0% -0.84% -0.16%
Not before 10 September 2024 85.40% +0.04% +1.00% +9.40%

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