Oiram18 asks:

Will Russia be the largest supplier of arms to India from 2020 to 2024, according to SIPRI?

Started Mar 22, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

India has shifted from its heavy dependence on Russia for arms and weapons over the past several years, all while trying to balance the strength of its relationship with Moscow as Chinese military spending climbs (US News & World Report, BBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), expected in March 2025 (SIPRI - Publications, parameters set in link). From 2019 to 2023, Russia's share of India's total arms imports was 36% (France was second at 33%), down from 68% from 2012 to 2016 (SIPRI - Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023, SIPRI - Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2016). Due to rounding practices, the country listed as "1st" will determine the outcome, irrespective of whether the percentages shown for "1st" and "2nd" are the same. An xlsx file with links and data may be downloaded here: SIPRI Reports - File Download.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 28%
No 72%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 170
Number of Forecasts 250
Average for questions older than 6 months: 500
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.948327
3.
-0.924147
4.
-0.91194
5.
-0.904116

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
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