Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 5.0% or more in a single trading day before 5 November 2024?

Started Apr 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 04, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Various geopolitical and financial risks are hanging over US equity markets (US News & World Report, Yahoo). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 5.0% or more in a single trading day was 11 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 23.93% 0% 0% +4.79%
No 76.07% 0% 0% -4.79%

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