Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 5.0% or more in a single trading day before 5 November 2024?
Closed Nov 04, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Various geopolitical and financial risks are hanging over US equity markets (US News & World Report, Yahoo). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 5.0% or more in a single trading day was 11 June 2020.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 95 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 375 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |