Before 15 June 2024, will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors adopt a new resolution or other instrument calling for better cooperation from Iran regarding its nuclear program?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2024 01:00PM UTC

In March 2024, the US and other IAEA member states threatened future actions against Iran for "stonewalling" the IAEA's work to monitor the country's nuclear program (Arms Control Association, US News & World Report). The last such resolution was adopted in November 2022 (Al Jazeera, IAEA - Iran IAEA Resolutions). The next IAEA Board of Governors meeting is scheduled for 3-7 June 2024 (IAEA - Upcoming Events).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 59%
No 41%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.474211
3.
-0.448924
4.
-0.310524
5.
-0.286643

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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