What percentage of total US energy consumption in 2024 will come from renewable energy, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The share of primary energy consumption in the US that comes from renewable energy has steadily climbed in the 21st Century per EIA data, from 3.72% in 2001 to 8.80% in 2023 (US News & World Report, National Association of Manufacturers). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" (Energy Information Administration). Under "TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE," select "Annual" and divide the 2024 figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" by the 2024 figure for "Total" at the bottom of the table. As of the launch of this question, the EIA reported that the "Renewable Energy" total for 2023 was 8.244574 quadrillion Btu, and the "Total" energy consumption was 93.685776, which results in a quotient of 8.80024%.

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The question closed "At least 9.00%, but less than 9.50%" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 8.50% 1%
At least 8.50%, but less than 9.00% 1%
At least 9.00%, but less than 9.50% 90%
9.50% or more 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02399
2.
-0.021229
3.
-0.009893
4.
-0.009732
5.
-0.008963

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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