When will Israel publicly announce that all Israeli citizens captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Negotiations between Hamas and Israel continue for, among other things, the release of hostages taken in the early October 2023 attack on the country by Hamas and other groups (CNN). As of 10 April 2024, Israel stated that 133 hostages were still being held, but that 36 of them were confirmed dead (MSN). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead would count as to those particular hostages, and whether an Israeli citizen holds dual citizenship is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 29 August 2024" with a closing date of 29 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 17 May 2024 0%
Between 17 May 2024 and 20 June 2024 0%
Between 21 June 2024 and 25 July 2024 0%
Between 26 July 2024 and 29 August 2024 1%
Not before 29 August 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 242
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014779
3.
-0.014523
4.
-0.014523
5.
-0.014444

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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