When will Israel publicly announce that all Israeli citizens captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?
Closed Aug 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel continue for, among other things, the release of hostages taken in the early October 2023 attack on the country by Hamas and other groups (CNN). As of 10 April 2024, Israel stated that 133 hostages were still being held, but that 36 of them were confirmed dead (MSN). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead would count as to those particular hostages, and whether an Israeli citizen holds dual citizenship is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Not before 29 August 2024" with a closing date of 29 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 17 May 2024 | 0% | |
Between 17 May 2024 and 20 June 2024 | 0% | |
Between 21 June 2024 and 25 July 2024 | 0% | |
Between 26 July 2024 and 29 August 2024 | 1% | |
Not before 29 August 2024 | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 87 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 242 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |