How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2024?

Started May 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) of the US International Trade Administration (ITA) expects international visitation to the US to continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (US International Trade Administration). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data for 2024 as first reported by the NTTO's ADIS/I-94 Visitor Arrivals Monitor (COR) for all of 2024 (Trade.gov). Near the bottom of this page, click the arrow to the right of "1 of 7" for monthly and historical data. In 2023, total US arrivals were 66,481,888, higher than 2022 but still below the pre-pandemic total of nearly 80 million in 2019. Data from 2018 to now are available using the filter functionality (click the funnel icon on the left side of the page).

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The question closed "At least 68 million, but fewer than 74 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 62 million 1%
At least 62 million, but fewer than 68 million 1%
At least 68 million, but fewer than 74 million 79%
At least 74 million, but fewer than 80 million 18%
80 million or more 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.109226
2.
-0.104525
3.
-0.080585
4.
-0.051822
5.
-0.048479

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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