What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 21 January 2025?

Started May 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 21, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 19 January 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 13 May 2024, the yield was 4.48%.

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The question closed "At least 4.25%, but less than 4.75%" with a closing date of 21 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.25% 0%
At least 2.25%, but less than 2.75% 0%
At least 2.75%, but less than 3.25% 0%
At least 3.25%, but less than 3.75% 0%
At least 3.75%, but less than 4.25% 0%
At least 4.25%, but less than 4.75% 88%
At least 4.75%, but less than 5.25% 12%
At least 5.25%, but less than 5.75% 0%
At least 5.75%, but less than 6.25% 0%
At least 6.25%, but less than 6.75% 0%
6.75% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 184
Number of Forecasts 399
Average for questions older than 6 months: 534
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.10831
2.
-0.106494
3.
-0.1001
4.
-0.062716
5.
-0.055545

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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