Will California voters approve an increase in the state minimum wage to $18 an hour in the 2024 general election?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Proponents of an initiative to increase the California minimum wage to $18 per hour gathered enough signatures to qualify an initiative for the ballot in 2022, though the measure would not appear until 2024 "unless withdrawn by the proponent [Joe Sanberg] prior to certification pursuant to Elections Code section 9604(b)" (Ballotpedia, California Secretary of State, Politico).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 84%
No 11%
The initiative will not appear on the 2024 general election ballot 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.749032
2.
-1.564617
3.
-1.477919
4.
-1.431632
5.
-1.017013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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