What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for November 2024?

Started Jun 21, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, hit a nearly four-year low in May 2024 as interest rates continued to price many potential homebuyers out of the market (Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for May 2024, typically in December (FRED). As of the launch of this question, FRED reported that the annualized rate of US housing starts was 1.510 million in November 2023.

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The question closed "At least 1.15 million, but fewer than 1.30 million" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.00 million 0%
At least 1.00 million, but fewer than 1.15 million 1%
At least 1.15 million, but fewer than 1.30 million 34%
At least 1.30 million, but fewer than 1.45 million 50%
At least 1.45 million, but fewer than 1.60 million 15%
At least 1.60 million, but fewer than 1.75 million 0%
1.75 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 185
Number of Forecasts 161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 538
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042127
2.
-0.02586
3.
-0.024668
4.
-0.022025
5.
-0.015663

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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