ricitron asks:
Will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip before 7 October 2024?
Closed Oct 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC
As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, the prospect of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is further complicating the situation (Middle East Eye, CNN). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count.
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NOTE 5 September 2024: The announced beginning of a ceasefire must occur before 7 October 2024 (i.e., it must start before 7 October 2024).
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 7 October 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 1% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 88 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163 | |
Number of Forecasts | 354 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |