ricitron asks:

Will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip before 7 October 2024?

Started Jul 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, the prospect of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is further complicating the situation (Middle East Eye, CNN). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count.

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NOTE 5 September 2024: The announced beginning of a ceasefire must occur before 7 October 2024 (i.e., it must start before 7 October 2024).


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 7 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 354
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.165685
3.
-0.165685
4.
-0.146538
5.
-0.142515

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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