Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the annual rate of food inflation in India in January 2025?

Started Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Food inflation in India remained elevated in the first half of 2024, though the rate of food price increases dipped in July (MSN [Economic Times], Money Control, Fortune India). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2025 and the outcome determined using India Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) data as first reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). To access the data directly, visit: MOSPI.gov.in. Click "Consumer Price Index Archives," then click "Yes." On the new page that opens, hover your cursor over "Annual Inflation Rates" in the list on the left side of the screen, then move the cursor over "Base: 2012," and click "Current Series." Set the date range you want under "From" and "To," select "ALL India" under "State," change "Food and beverages" to "Consumer Food Price Index" at the bottom of the drop-down menu under "Group," leave "Order By" as "Group," and click "View Inflation Rates" or "Download" for a csv file with the data. The pertinent data are found in the "Combined" column. If the outcome is ambiguous based on data displayed by Trading Economics, the outcome will be determined by downloading data from MOSPI.

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The question closed "At least 4.00%, but less than 8.00%" with a closing date of 1 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4.00% 1%
At least 4.00%, but less than 8.00% 53%
At least 8.00%, but less than 12.00% 44%
At least 12.00%, but less than 16.00% 2%
At least 16.00%, but less than 20.00% 0%
20.00% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.090842
2.
-0.069596
3.
-0.060577
4.
-0.060135
5.
-0.038135

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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