What will be the US federal budget deficit in FY2025 (1 October 2024 to 30 September 2025)?
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US government has been operating with trillion-dollar deficits for years, which has major financial and economic implications for the country and the world (US News & World Report, CNN, Congressional Budget Office). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using the Monthly Treasury Statement covering through 30 September 2025 as published by the Department of the Treasury (Department of the Treasury - Monthly Treasury Statements). For FY2023, the US federal budget deficit was reported as $1,695,148 million, or $1.695148 trillion (Department of the Treasury, see page 5).
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The question closed "At least $1.65 trillion, but less than $1.80 trillion" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $1.50 trillion | 0% | |
| At least $1.50 trillion, but less than $1.65 trillion | 4% | |
| At least $1.65 trillion, but less than $1.80 trillion | 7% | |
| At least $1.80 trillion, but less than $1.95 trillion | 43% | |
| At least $1.95 trillion, but less than $2.10 trillion | 36% | |
| At least $2.10 trillion, but less than $2.25 trillion | 5% | |
| At least $2.25 trillion, but less than $2.40 trillion | 5% | |
| At least $2.40 trillion, but less than $2.55 trillion | 0% | |
| At least $2.55 trillion, but less than $2.70 trillion | 0% | |
| More than $2.70 trillion | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 41 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 260 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
