What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2025?
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained relatively low in 2024 (Yahoo [Reuters], ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS's) official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in early April 2025 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate for March 2024 was 3.8%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3%" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.7% | 0% | |
| At least 3.7%, but less than 4.0% | 6% | |
| At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3% | 67% | |
| At least 4.3%, but less than 4.6% | 23% | |
| At least 4.6%, but less than 4.9% | 3% | |
| At least 4.9%, but less than 5.2% | 2% | |
| At least 5.2%, but less than 5.5% | 0% | |
| 5.5% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 253 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
