What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2025?

Started Nov 29, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The US unemployment rate has remained relatively low in 2024 (Yahoo [Reuters], ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS's) official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in early April 2025 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate for March 2024 was 3.8%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Less than 3.7% 5.60% +1.10% 0%
At least 3.7%, but less than 4.0% 17.60% +0.70% -12.80%
At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3% 51.00% -3.70% -4.90%
At least 4.3%, but less than 4.6% 21.80% +1.90% +15.10%
At least 4.6%, but less than 4.9% 3.40% 0% +2.20%
At least 4.9%, but less than 5.2% 0.40% 0% +0.20%
At least 5.2%, but less than 5.5% 0.10% 0% +0.10%
5.5% or more 0.10% 0% +0.10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username