Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will tanker ship daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz be below 15 for two consecutive days, according to the IMF?

Started Dec 13, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

As tensions between Iran and various actors remain high, there is fear that it could attempt to halt critical energy shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, Middle East Eye, Yahoo [Business Insider]). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options). As of the launch of this question, PortWatch reported the lowest number of tanker ship transit calls for a single day at 27 on 6 December 2019. Cargo ship transits are immaterial, and they may be excluded by clicking "Number of Cargo Ships" under the chart on the webpage. A static file with data for 1 January 2019 to 1 December 2024 may be downloaded here: xlsx Download.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 157
Average for questions older than 6 months: 459
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.010339
2.
-0.009806
3.
-0.008602
4.
-0.007763
5.
-0.007117

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username