President Trump has threatened to impose massive tariffs on Canadian imports if demands are not met (BBC, Al Jazeera). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade, free registration required). After logging in, click "Imports" next to "Harmonized System (HS) District-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select both "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" and "Calculated Duty ($US)." 2) Leave "Commodity" unrevised, as it defaults to "All Commodities." 3) Click "Country," then click the "+" next to "World Total," then find and select "Canada." 4) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After those entries, click "Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. To calculate the effective tariff rate for a month, divide the "Calculated Duty ($US)" value by the "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" value, and multiply that value by 100 to obtain the percentage rate. From 2002 to 2024, the highest monthly effective tariff rate on US imports from Canada was 0.65% in January 2019 (Download - US Effective Tariff Rate on Canadian Imports 2002-2024 GJO 5 February 2025 [xlsx]).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.