How many transit calls will the Panama Canal have between and including 1 April 2025 and 30 June 2025, according to the IMF?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After two years of El Nino-induced drought greatly limited transit capacity in the Panama Canal, traffic through the critical passageway is recovering as the Trump administration has raised concerns over Chinese influence (CNBC, AP, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (IMF PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options; add the "Number of Cargo Ships" to the "Number of Tanker Ships"). Between and including 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024, the Panama Canal had 2,127 transit calls, down from 2,870 over the same period in 2023.
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The question closed "At least 2,500, but fewer than 2,700" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1,900 | 1% | |
| At least 1,900, but fewer than 2,100 | 2% | |
| At least 2,100, but fewer than 2,300 | 3% | |
| At least 2,300, but fewer than 2,500 | 12% | |
| At least 2,500, but fewer than 2,700 | 79% | |
| At least 2,700, but fewer than 2,900 | 1% | |
| At least 2,900, but fewer than 3,100 | 1% | |
| 3,100 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 24 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 146 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 130 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 392 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
