Will the average daily crude oil production by Iran fall below 2,750 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) for any month in 2025?

Started Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

President Trump has promised to impose "maximum pressure" on Iran (WhiteHouse.gov, AOL [Reuters], Middle East Monitor). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data for "IR Iran" as reported in the "DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Reports (MOMRs) (OPEC). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. The average daily crude oil production by Iran in December 2024 was 3,314 tb/d (OPEC - January 2025 MOMR, see Table 5 - 7 on page 53).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.08128
2.
-0.08128
3.
-0.081062
4.
-0.080488
5.
-0.061917

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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