Foxes ask:

Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation treating "carried interest" as ordinary income for 2026 become law?

Started Mar 14, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The tax treatment of carried interest, a form of compensation received by investment fund managers, has been repeatedly targeted for elimination (Investopedia - Carried Interest, CBS News, Congressional Budget Office, see page 150). President Trump and Congress are working to extend various provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) (AP). The TCJA changed the requirements of eligibility for treating carried interest at a lower capital gains rate, but it did not eliminate it (Tax Policy Center, Cornell - 26 USC §1061). Mere changes to requirements for eligibility for treating carried interest at a lower capital gains rate without its elimination will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001295
2.
-0.001295
4.
-0.001191
5.
-0.000539

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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