Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation exempting reported qualified "tips" from income taxes for 2026 become law?
Closed Jul 04, 2025 09:45PM UTC
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pitched the idea of exempting tips from federal income taxes (Fox 4, Sen. Ted Cruz, Congress.gov - HB 482). The inclusion or exclusion of federal payroll taxes will be immaterial (ADP). For the purposes of this question, the current limit of when tips do not need to be reported (less than $20 with a single employer in a calendar month) is immaterial (IRS.gov - Tip Recordkeeping and Reporting). The highest potential maximum exemption for an individual with a single employer will be used for resolution.
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The question closed "Yes, exempting $25,000 or more" with a closing date of 4 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| No | 2% | |
| Yes, exempting up to and including $10,000 | 1% | |
| Yes, exempting more than $10,000, but less than $25,000 | 10% | |
| Yes, exempting $25,000 or more | 87% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 18 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 78 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
