Before 6 September 2025, will a US federal court issue injunctive relief to block any of the president's imposition of tariffs made after 19 January 2025 pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) or other statute?

Started Apr 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 28, 2025 11:00PM UTC

President Trump has exercised various statutory authorities to impose tariffs on much of the world, including the IEEPA (Atlantic Council, Federation of American Scientists [Congressional Research Service]). On 3 April 2025, the New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA) sued to block tariffs imposed by President Trump, asserting that he exceeded his authority by using the IEEPA to impose those tariffs (NCLA, Politico). If a court orders injunctive relief but stays that order pending appeal, the question will remain open unless and until the stay is lifted and the injunctive relief takes effect (Cornell - Injunctive Relief, Cornell - Injunction, Cornell - Stay of Proceedings).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 37%
No 63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 121
Number of Forecasts 98
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 280
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.408379
2.
-0.394966
3.
-0.370711
4.
-0.348902
5.
-0.318157

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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