When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Started
Apr 18, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 18, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Apr 18, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement have not gained traction (NBC News, France 24, Al Jazeera). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration will count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) will not count. The date an agreement will take effect is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 17 August 2025 | 1.00% | 0% | -0.50% |
| Between 17 August 2025 and 16 December 2025 | 4.80% | -1.00% | -2.50% |
| Between 17 December 2025 and 17 April 2026 | 11.70% | +1.00% | +1.00% |
| Not before 18 April 2026 | 82.50% | 0% | +2.00% |