How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded cargo will the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach (the Ports) report for May 2025 through July 2025?

Started May 02, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

US trade policy is expected to have a major impact on imports into the country, particularly on the West Coast where much cargo from China is shipped (CNBC, Yahoo [Investing.com]). The Ports are collectively known as the San Pedro Bay Port Complex (Port of Los Angeles). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2025 and the outcome determined using May, June, and July 2025 data as reported by the Ports for "Loaded" TEUs, a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles, see "Loaded Imports," Port of Long Beach, see "Loaded Inbound," Freight Right - TEU). For May 2024 through July 2024, the Ports reported a total of 2,520,746.4 "Loaded" TEUs, or 2.5207464 million "Loaded" TEUs. A static xlsx file with historical and summary data may be downloaded by clicking here: Download.

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The question closed "At least 2.3 million, but fewer than 2.5 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.1 million 1%
At least 1.1 million, but fewer than 1.3 million 1%
At least 1.3 million, but fewer than 1.5 million 1%
At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 1.7 million 1%
At least 1.7 million, but fewer than 1.9 million 2%
At least 1.9 million, but fewer than 2.1 million 18%
At least 2.1 million, but fewer than 2.3 million 28%
At least 2.3 million, but fewer than 2.5 million 34%
2.5 million or more 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.219787
2.
-0.182549
3.
-0.132859
4.
-0.057903
5.
-0.044591

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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