Before 1 January 2026, will the United States give written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO)?

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will the United States give written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO)?

Started May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

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International Trade Challenge In the News 2025 Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

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As US policy regarding international organizations shifts under the Trump administration, there is speculation that the US could withdraw from the WTO (Yahoo [Reuters], France 24, Meer). The procedure of withdrawal from the WTO is governed by Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement (WHO - Marrakesh Agreement).

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Possible Answer	Crowd Forecast	Change in last 24 hours	Change in last week	Change in last month
Yes	10.50%	-0.25%	-0.50%	-7.42%
No	89.50%	+0.25%	+0.50%	+7.42%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will the United States give written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO)?

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