Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 January 2026, will the United States give written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO)?
Started
May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
As US policy regarding international organizations shifts under the Trump administration, there is speculation that the US could withdraw from the WTO (Yahoo [Reuters], France 24, Meer). The procedure of withdrawal from the WTO is governed by Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement (WHO - Marrakesh Agreement).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | |
| No | 91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 36 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 136 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
