What will happen next in 2025 with regard to the closing yield for US 10-year Treasury securities?
Closed Oct 16, 2025 09:00PM UTC
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury (aka bond) is a major benchmark for finance in the US, and concerns about US debt levels are weighing on markets (Investopedia, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using market yield data on 10-year Treasury securities as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 3 June 2025 was 4.46%.
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The question closed "The yield will be reported as 4.00% or lower" with a closing date of 16 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The yield will be reported as 4.00% or lower | 61% | |
| The yield will be reported as 5.00% or higher | 5% | |
| Neither will occur before 1 January 2026 | 34% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 18 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 96 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
