What will happen next in 2025 with regard to the closing yield for US 10-year Treasury securities?

Started Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury (aka bond) is a major benchmark for finance in the US, and concerns about US debt levels are weighing on markets (Investopedia, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using market yield data on 10-year Treasury securities as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 3 June 2025 was 4.46%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
The yield will be reported as 4.00% or lower 16.10% -1.20% -2.20%
The yield will be reported as 5.00% or higher 26.90% -0.70% -0.50%
Neither will occur before 1 January 2026 57.00% +1.90% +2.70%

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