What will happen next in 2025 with regard to the closing yield for US 10-year Treasury securities?
Started
Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury (aka bond) is a major benchmark for finance in the US, and concerns about US debt levels are weighing on markets (Investopedia, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using market yield data on 10-year Treasury securities as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 3 June 2025 was 4.46%.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
---|---|---|---|
The yield will be reported as 4.00% or lower | 16.10% | -1.20% | -2.20% |
The yield will be reported as 5.00% or higher | 26.90% | -0.70% | -0.50% |
Neither will occur before 1 January 2026 | 57.00% | +1.90% | +2.70% |