What will be the total value of US-China trade in goods (exports plus imports) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 as compared to Q3 2024?

Started Jun 13, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China remained high in June 2025 as both countries hold talks aimed at finding new agreements (AP, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 2025 as of the first release of the US Census Bureau's September 2025 data for "Trade in Goods with China," expected in November 2025 (Census.gov - Trade in Goods with China, Census Bureau - Release Schedule). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $33,923.8 (millions of dollars) in goods exported from the US to China, and a total of $123,630.5 (millions of dollars) in goods imported from China to the US, for a total value of $157,554.3 (millions of dollars) in Q3 2024 (Census.gov - Trade in Goods with China, sum the pertinent months). That figure will be used for resolution as to Q3 2024, irrespective of any future revisions. The monthly historical data (same data, different precision) may be downloaded by clicking here: Download (note that the data in this file will not be revised).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Down by more than 25.00% 32.22% 0% +0.34% +6.39%
Down by more than 15.00%, but at most 25.00% 24.33% 0% +1.20% +2.66%
Down by more than 5.00%, but at most 15.00% 14.56% 0% +0.81% -0.44%
Between down by 5.00% and up 5.00%, inclusive 20.33% 0% -1.55% -6.34%
Up by more than 5.00%, but at most 15.00% 1.89% 0% +0.01% +1.06%
Up by more than 15.00%, but at most 25.00% 0.56% 0% -0.07% -0.27%
Up by more than 25.00% 6.11% 0% -0.77% -3.06%

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