What will be the total value of US-EU trade in goods (exports plus imports) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 as compared to Q3 2024?

Started Jun 13, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While much attention has been paid to trade tensions between the US and China, a showdown between the US and EU on trade has been brewing since President Trump took office in January 2025 (AP, Council on Foreign Relations). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 2025 as of the first release of the US Census Bureau's September 2025 data for "Trade in Goods with European Union," expected in November 2025 (Census.gov - Trade in Goods with European Union, Census Bureau - Release Schedule). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $92,767.9 (millions of dollars) in goods exported from the US to the EU, and a total of $156,193.7 (millions of dollars) in goods imported from the EU to the US, for a total value of $248,961.6 (millions of dollars) in Q3 2024 (Census.gov - Trade in Goods with European Union, sum the pertinent months). That figure will be used for resolution as to Q3 2024, irrespective of any future revisions. The monthly historical data (same data, different precision) may be downloaded by clicking here: Download (note that the data in this file will not be revised).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Down by more than 20.00% 7.10% 0% -4.00% -2.07%
Down by more than 12.00%, but at most 20.00% 9.70% -2.00% -6.50% -16.97%
Down by more than 4.00%, but at most 12.00% 17.60% -1.00% -1.00% -8.23%
Between down by 4.00% and up 4.00%, inclusive 59.90% +3.00% +11.00% +25.73%
Up by more than 4.00%, but at most 12.00% 3.90% 0% +0.40% +1.40%
Up by more than 12.00%, but at most 20.00% 1.30% 0% +0.10% +0.47%
Up by more than 20.00% 0.50% 0% 0% -0.33%

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