When will the US president announce his choice to be the next Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Chair of the Fed)?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
As President Trump continues to voice his displeasure with current Fed interest rate policy, there are reports that he may announce his choice to replace Chair Powell well before his term as Chair of the Fed ends on 15 May 2026 (CNBC, Newsweek, Federal Reserve - Press Release 23 May 2022). A formal nomination received by the Senate is not required, but it would count. A social media post by the president alone must be corroborated by credible, open-source reporting to count. In the event the president purports to terminate Powell as Chair of the Fed, only the naming of his choice to be the next Chair who will either require Senate confirmation or be a recess appointment will count (as opposed to the president merely mentioning who would act as Chair by virtue of the rules of the Federal Reserve).
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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2026" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 September 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 1 September 2025 and 31 October 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 1 November 2025 and 31 December 2025 | 3% | |
| Not before 1 January 2026 | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 303 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |