When will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of the Philippines resulting in two or more fatalities?

Started Jul 03, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

Tensions between the PRC and the Philippines have remained high as confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea escalate in violence (Yahoo [Reuters], CBS News, War on the Rocks). Over the years, the PRC has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (AP, Center for Strategic & International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Modern War Institute). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as Forces, an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC and the Philippines that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country will suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group will be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 November 2025 0% 0% 0% -2.40%
Between 1 November 2025 and 28 February 2026 3.00% 0% -1.00% -2.90%
Between 1 March 2026 and 30 June 2026 15.00% -1.00% 0% +3.90%
Not before 1 July 2026 82.00% +1.00% +1.00% +1.40%

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