Will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly announce that it has deployed armed forces to Ukraine before 1 January 2026?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

While NATO and its member states have not officially deployed their armed forces to Ukraine since Russia's 2022 invasion, discussions about potential deployments have ebbed and flowed (AP, Newsweek, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea, as well as the territorial waters of Ukraine. As of the launch of this question, there were 32 NATO member states (NATO - Member States). The presence of troops evacuating nationals or defending diplomatic missions will not count, but the announced deployment of armed forces (actually armed) for the stated purpose of training Ukrainian armed forces will count. The announced deployment of armed air forces under NATO or NATO member state command into the territorial airspace of Ukraine (e.g., no-fly zone enforcement), including drones, will count, though inadvertent entry into Ukrainian airspace will not count. The question will close upon an announcement of the actual presence of armed forces, and the announcement of the deployment of civilian law enforcement authorities will not count (e.g., Pravda.com.ua).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 7.00% 0% -0.69% -3.23%
No 93.00% 0% +0.69% +3.23%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username