Will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly announce that it has deployed armed forces to Ukraine before 1 January 2026?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

While NATO and its member states have not officially deployed their armed forces to Ukraine since Russia's 2022 invasion, discussions about potential deployments have ebbed and flowed (AP, Newsweek, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea, as well as the territorial waters of Ukraine. As of the launch of this question, there were 32 NATO member states (NATO - Member States). The presence of troops evacuating nationals or defending diplomatic missions will not count, but the announced deployment of armed forces (actually armed) for the stated purpose of training Ukrainian armed forces will count. The announced deployment of armed air forces under NATO or NATO member state command into the territorial airspace of Ukraine (e.g., no-fly zone enforcement), including drones, will count, though inadvertent entry into Ukrainian airspace will not count. The question will close upon an announcement of the actual presence of armed forces, and the announcement of the deployment of civilian law enforcement authorities will not count (e.g., Pravda.com.ua).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 173
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 472
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0099
2.
-0.0099
4.
-0.0099
5.
-0.009897

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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