What will be the value of the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted US dollar index for advanced foreign economies on 12 December 2025?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The value of the US dollar as compared to other currencies fell substantially in the first half of 2025 (CNBC, Newsweek). The Federal Reserve publishes US dollar indices that track the relative value of the dollar versus foreign currencies weighted by countries' level of trade with the US (Federal Reserve Dollar Indexes). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2025 and the outcome determined using nominal index data as published by the Federal Reserve, expected on 15 December 2025 (FRED).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 109.00, but less than 112.00" with a closing date of 12 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 100.00 5%
At least 100.00, but less than 103.00 3%
At least 103.00, but less than 106.00 20%
At least 106.00, but less than 109.00 12%
At least 109.00, but less than 112.00 13%
At least 112.00, but less than 115.00 46%
At least 115.00, but less than 118.00 0%
At least 118.00, but less than 121.00 0%
At least 121.00, but less than 124.00 0%
124.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 14
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.123332
2.
-0.116115
3.
-0.071463
4.
-0.06577
5.
-0.060196

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username