What will be the effective US tariff rate for all imports for consumption from Canada in the fourth quarter of 2025?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
As of 29 July 2025, trade negotiations were ongoing between the US and Canada, with the US threatening general and sector-specific tariffs on a host of goods (Politico, Yahoo [Canadian Press]). However, the USMCA, the trade deal that replaced NAFTA, has resulted in much trade avoiding new tariff impositions (Globe and Mail, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade, free registration required). After logging in, click "Imports" next to "Harmonized System (HS) District-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select both "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" and "Calculated Duty ($US)." 2) Leave "Commodity" unrevised, as it defaults to "All Commodities." 3) Click "Country," then click the "+" next to "World Total," then find and select "Canada." 4) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After those entries, click "Create Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Create Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. To calculate the effective tariff rate for a time period, divide the total "Calculated Duty ($US)" value by the total "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" value. For the fourth quarter of 2024, the effective tariff rate for Canada was 0.099%, up from 0.083% for the fourth quarter of 2023 (Download).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.000% | 0.70% | -0.70% | -0.70% | -3.10% |
| At least 1.000%, but less than 2.500% | 3.20% | -1.90% | -1.90% | -4.10% |
| At least 2.500%, but less than 5.000% | 52.10% | +4.00% | +15.50% | +18.20% |
| At least 5.000%, but less than 7.500% | 28.90% | -1.10% | -11.10% | -9.40% |
| At least 7.500%, but less than 10.000% | 3.90% | -0.30% | -1.80% | -4.00% |
| At least 10.000%, but less than 15.000% | 3.70% | 0% | 0% | +0.40% |
| At least 15.000%, but less than 20.000% | 4.50% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least 20.000%, but less than 25.000% | 1.20% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least 25.000%, but less than 30.000% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |
| 30.000% or more | 0.80% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |