Between 1 October 2025 and 31 December 2026, will the US experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third (BEA - Release Schedule). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using the advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2026 (Q4 2024), expected in January 2027, and the third estimates for all other quarters, typically released in the subsequent quarter. The third estimate for Q4 2024 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent for the quarter (BEA - Third Estimate Q4 2024). As of the launch of this question, the last time the quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2025 (Trading Economics).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21.05% | 0% | -0.60% | -2.95% |
| No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth | 26.65% | 0% | +0.15% | +7.65% |
| No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth | 52.30% | 0% | +0.45% | -4.70% |