Foxes ask:
Before 2 May 2026, will the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) bring an enforcement action against Kalshi and/or Kalshi affiliates?
Closing May 02, 2026 07:01AM UTC
CFTC-regulated exchange and prediction market Kalshi has begun to face scrutiny for its sports betting contracts, as well as questions about potential self-dealing among Kalshi entities (ESPN, Fast Company, Sportico). For the purposes of this question, "Kalshi" means Kalshi Inc., and "Kalshi affiliates" means Kalshi Klear LLC and Kalshi Trading (Kalshi - About, Kalshi - Kalshi Klear, Kalshi - Kalshi Trading). An announced investigation, including the issuance of a Wells notice or the disapproval of a contract, alone will not count (Yahoo, CFTC). The venue (i.e., type of court) and whether the enforcement action is administrative or injunctive are immaterial (CFTC - Office of the Director of Enforcement, CFTC - Enforcement Actions). The ultimate disposition of an enforcement action is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.