Will the United States formally reopen its embassy in Damascus, Syria, before 1 January 2026?

Started Oct 17, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The US closed its embassy in Damascus in February 2012 when violence erupted marking the beginning of the Syrian civil war, but it has taken steps that may lead to the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the new Syrian government (AP, France 24, Middle East Eye). The question will close upon the actual, formal reopening of the embassy, not merely an announced plan for reopening. The reopening of the embassy need not be in the previous embassy building, but it must be located in Damascus or the Damascus Countryside Governorate to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 16%
No 84%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006754
2.
-0.006754
4.
-0.006754
5.
-0.006751

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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