What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 20 November 2026?
Started
Oct 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 20, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closing Nov 20, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The difference between interest rates on longer-term debt and shorter-term debt has been used historically to forecast, among other things, the rate of economic growth (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 19 November 2026 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 20 November 2024, the spread was 0.10%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.50% or lower | 1.90% | 0% | -0.10% | -14.10% |
| Higher than -0.50%, but at most -0.25% | 2.20% | 0% | 0% | +0.20% |
| Higher than -0.25%, but at most 0.00% | 7.50% | 0% | 0% | +2.40% |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.25% | 13.50% | 0% | 0% | -0.40% |
| Higher than 0.25%, but at most 0.50% | 33.80% | -0.50% | -0.40% | +6.50% |
| Higher than 0.50%, but at most 0.75% | 27.90% | +0.50% | +0.50% | +5.40% |
| Higher than 0.75%, but at most 1.00% | 6.00% | 0% | -0.10% | +1.10% |
| Higher than 1.00%, but at most 1.25% | 1.80% | 0% | +0.10% | -0.30% |
| Higher than 1.25%, but at most 1.50% | 1.70% | 0% | 0% | -0.20% |
| Higher than 1.50%, but at most 1.75% | 1.50% | 0% | 0% | -0.30% |
| Higher than 1.75%, but at most 2.00% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |
| Higher than 2.00% | 1.20% | 0% | 0% | -0.20% |