----1746346605 asks:
When will the Japanese House of Representatives next be dissolved?
Closed Jan 23, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took over a minority government in Japan in October 2025 and faces a number of challenges (Chatham House, Asahi). While the next general election is not due until 2028, elections may be called early with the dissolution of the House of Representatives (Penn Today, Constitution of Japan). The date an election is scheduled to take place is immaterial.
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The question closed "Before 24 March 2026" with a closing date of 22 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 24 March 2026 | 45% | |
| Between 24 March 2026 and 1 August 2026 | 18% | |
| Between 2 August 2026 and 30 November 2026 | 7% | |
| Not before 1 December 2026 | 29% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 20 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 110 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 43 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 254 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
