What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for September 2026?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
The US unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November 2025, the highest since September 2021 as job growth slowed and labor force participation increased (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2026 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate for September 2025 was reported as 4.4%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.9% | 25.75% | +16.66% |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2% | 4.75% | -4.34% |
| At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5% | 12.00% | +2.91% |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8% | 22.00% | +12.91% |
| At least 4.8%, but less than 5.1% | 16.25% | +7.16% |
| At least 5.1%, but less than 5.4% | 7.00% | -2.09% |
| At least 5.4%, but less than 5.7% | 5.50% | -3.59% |
| At least 5.7%, but less than 6.0% | 3.25% | -5.84% |
| At least 6.0%, but less than 6.3% | 1.75% | -7.34% |
| At least 6.3%, but less than 6.6% | 1.00% | -8.09% |
| 6.6% or more | 0.75% | -8.34% |