When will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, or Niger?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 04, 2026 07:01AM UTC

On Christmas Day 2025, the US bombed various purportedly Islamic State-affiliated sites in Sokoto State in the northwest of the country (US Africom, Council on Foreign Relations, PBS). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Targets in territorial waters will not count, and "territory" refers to the internationally recognized territory of those countries. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations). A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 3 April 2026 43.33% +18.33%
Between 3 April 2026 and 3 July 2026 10.00% -15.00%
Between 4 July 2026 and 3 October 2026 11.67% -13.33%
Not before 4 October 2026 35.00% +10.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username