When will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Mexico?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum insisted in late 2025 that she would not allow US forces to attack drug cartel targets in the country (El País, Al Jazeera). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations CNN). Targets in territorial waters will not count, though infrastructure attached to land (e.g., docks, bridges) will count. Accidents, such as stray ordnance falling onto Mexican territory, will not count. A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 1 July 2026 2.50% -30.83%
Between 1 July 2026 and 31 December 2026 5.25% -28.08%
Not before 1 January 2027 92.25% +58.92%

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