Before 1 August 2026, will the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) impose some form of countermeasures against Spain?
Closing Aug 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
On 22 December 2025, the FMC formally requested public comment regarding reports that the government of Spain had denied port access to US vessels that "were carrying cargo bound for or coming from Israel" (Freight Waves, Federal Register - 22 December 2025, Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, "countermeasures" include "adopting regulations restricting voyages to or from U.S. ports, imposing per voyage fees, limiting amounts or types of cargo, or taking 'any other action the Commission finds necessary and appropriate to adjust or meet any condition unfavorable to shipping the foreign trade of the United States.'" The countermeasures must explicitly call out Spain and/or Spanish firms or vessels to count. An announcement from the FMC formally published in the Federal Register or the actual imposition of countermeasures will count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.