What will be the average monthly US trade deficit in 2026?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
A country's balance of trade is calculated by subtracting the value of imports from the value of exports, and the US trade deficit has been a point of concern for decades (Investopedia - Trade Deficit, International Trade Membership Association, Council on Foreign Relations). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using Census Bureau trade balance data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in early February 2027 (FRED, note that a negative value indicates a deficit, while a positive value would indicate a surplus). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly US trade deficit in 2024 was $75,294.42 million, or $75.29442 billion. The US has not had a trade surplus in the 21st century.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $30.0 billion, or a trade surplus | 0% | 0% |
| At least $30.0 billion, but less than $38.0 billion | 0% | 0% |
| At least $38.0 billion, but less than $46.0 billion | 1.67% | 0% |
| At least $46.0 billion, but less than $54.0 billion | 22.50% | +15.83% |
| At least $54.0 billion, but less than $62.0 billion | 23.33% | +1.66% |
| At least $62.0 billion, but less than $70.0 billion | 28.00% | -5.33% |
| At least $70.0 billion, but less than $78.0 billion | 22.83% | -10.50% |
| $78.0 billion or more | 1.67% | -1.66% |