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When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?

389 Forecasters • 585 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 20, 2021 07:59AM UTC
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Before Inauguration Day 2021
9%
On Inauguration Day 2021
53%
After Inauguration Day 2021
38%
London Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the United Kingdom (UK) leave the European Union (EU) on or before 31 October 2019?

20%

Chance
475 Forecasters • 886 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Between 11 September 2019 and 31 October 2019, what will be the widest closing spread of the yield on 10-year Treasurys below the yield on 2-year Treasurys?

93 Forecasters • 322 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield
95%
The 10 Yr yield closing between .01 and .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield, inclusive
5%
The 10 Yr yield closing more than .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield
0%

Before 1 November 2019, will Judy Shelton and/or Christopher Waller be confirmed by the Senate for the Federal Reserve Board?

70 Forecasters • 245 Forecasts
Started Jul 19, 2019 05:15PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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Yes, only Judy Shelton
0%
Yes, only Christopher Waller
0%
Yes, the Senate will confirm both
0%
No, the Senate will confirm neither
100%

When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?

330 Forecasters • 633 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2019 06:30PM UTC
Closing Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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Before 1 October 2019
0%
Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive
5%
Not before 1 January 2020
95%

What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 20 October 2019?

97 Forecasters • 399 Forecasts
Started Jun 07, 2019 11:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 19, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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Less than 2.30
100%
Between 2.30 and 2.70, inclusive
0%
More than 2.70 but less than 3.10
0%
Between 3.10 and 3.50, inclusive
0%
More than 3.50
0%

Before 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?

2%

Chance
210 Forecasters • 552 Forecasts
Started May 17, 2019 04:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC

What will be the closing value of the S&P/TSX Composite Index on 31 October 2019?

124 Forecasters • 479 Forecasts
Started Apr 19, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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Less than 15,000.00
2%
Between 15,000.00 and 16,000.00, inclusive
16%
More than 16,000.00 but less than 17,000.00
75%
Between 17,000.00 and 18,000.00, inclusive
6%
More than 18,000.00
1%
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will Justin Trudeau cease to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election?

40%

Chance
1052 Forecasters • 1825 Forecasts
Started Jan 18, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 16, 2019 07:59AM UTC