Toggle navigation
Blog
Challenges
Sign In
Sign Up
Challenges
Questions
Status
Active
Coming Soon
Active
Pending Resolution
Resolved
Suspended
Voided
Type
all
all
Forecasting Questions
Discussion Questions
Sort By
Start Date
End Date
Number of Predictions
Alphabetically
Filter By
Featured Questions
Questions I'm Following
Questions I've Forecasted
Challenges
Select All
Not Part of a Challenge
(3)
only
2022 Long-term Vehicle... (13)
only
China and the World in... (9)
only
Coronavirus Outbreak (16)
only
Finance Forecasting Ch... (1)
only
Foxes Ask (19)
only
In the News 2021 (102)
only
Superforecasting® Work... (24)
only
The Economist: The Wor... (19)
only
Show less
Tags
Select All
Technology (13)
only
Business (12)
only
Environment (5)
only
US Politics (1)
only
Show more
The
Mack Institute
asks:
How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?
80 Forecasters • 262 Forecasts
Started
Aug 21, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 25,000
59%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
33%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000
8%
Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000
0%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?
78 Forecasters • 197 Forecasts
Started
Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service
47%
Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package
1%
Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service
12%
No
40%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?
56 Forecasters • 203 Forecasts
Started
Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
2%
1 or 2
42%
3 or 4
42%
5 or 6
7%
7 or more
7%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?
71 Forecasters • 181 Forecasts
Started
Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a firm
5%
Yes, a paid backup driver
5%
Yes, both
1%
No
89%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?
45 Forecasters • 170 Forecasts
Started
Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 2.2 million
0%
Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive
0%
More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million
45%
Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive
42%
More than 4.0 million
13%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?
29 Forecasters • 161 Forecasts
Started
Jul 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 5,300
0%
Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive
0%
More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100
79%
Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive
21%
More than 6,500
0%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?
71%
Chance
95 Forecasters • 202 Forecasts
Started
Jun 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The
Mack Institute
asks:
How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?
67 Forecasters • 227 Forecasts
Started
Jun 05, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 700,000
0%
Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive
10%
More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000
65%
Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive
25%
More than 2,200,000
0%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?
64 Forecasters • 221 Forecasts
Started
May 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 25,000
0%
Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive
0%
More than 30,000 but less than 35,000
10%
Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive
37%
More than 40,000
53%
The
Mack Institute
asks:
Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?
183 Forecasters • 334 Forecasts
Started
May 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
99%
1
1%
2
0%
3 or more
0%
1
2
Next ›
Last »
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel