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Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?
8%
Chance
30 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
At close of business on 14 December 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 2 November 2022?
34 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started
Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 14, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower
0%
Same
36%
Higher
64%
Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022?
14%
Chance
25 Forecasters • 47 Forecasts
Started
Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 29, 2022 08:01AM UTC
404_NOT_FOUND
asks:
To which political party will the next prime minister of Italy belong after the 2022 general election?
25 Forecasters • 46 Forecasts
Started
Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)
69%
Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)
31%
Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)
0%
Forward Italy (Forza Italia)
0%
League (Lega)
0%
None of the above
0%
Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?
15%
Chance
46 Forecasters • 138 Forecasts
Started
Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?
30 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started
Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower by 5.0% or more
0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
0%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
9%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
20%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
28%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
30%
Higher by 7.5% or more
13%
Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?
31%
Chance
81 Forecasters • 205 Forecasts
Started
Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
58 Forecasters • 168 Forecasts
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
6%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
45%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
40%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
9%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
0%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
0%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%
What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?
37 Forecasters • 171 Forecasts
Started
Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 23, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 4.00
0%
Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive
0%
More than 5.50 but less than 7.00
15%
Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive
33%
More than 8.50 but less than 10.00
41%
Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive
10%
More than 11.50 but less than 13.00
1%
Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive
0%
More than 14.50
0%
What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate on 16 December 2022?
29 Forecasters • 147 Forecasts
Started
Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 16, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 100.00
0%
Between 100.00 and 110.00, inclusive
0%
Higher than 110.00 but lower than 120.00
3%
Between 120.00 and 130.00, inclusive
24%
Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00
53%
Between 140.00 and 150.00, inclusive
19%
Higher than 150.00 but lower than 160.00
1%
160.00 or more
0%
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