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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

8%

Chance
30 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022?

14%

Chance
25 Forecasters • 47 Forecasts
Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 29, 2022 08:01AM UTC
404_NOT_FOUND asks:

To which political party will the next prime minister of Italy belong after the 2022 general election?

25 Forecasters • 46 Forecasts
Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)
69%
Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)
31%
Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)
0%
Forward Italy (Forza Italia)
0%
League (Lega)
0%
None of the above
0%

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

15%

Chance
46 Forecasters • 138 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?

30 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower by 5.0% or more
0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
0%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
9%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
20%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
28%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
30%
Higher by 7.5% or more
13%

Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?

31%

Chance
81 Forecasters • 205 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

58 Forecasters • 168 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
6%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
45%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
40%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
9%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
0%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
0%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%

What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?

37 Forecasters • 171 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 23, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 4.00
0%
Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive
0%
More than 5.50 but less than 7.00
15%
Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive
33%
More than 8.50 but less than 10.00
41%
Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive
10%
More than 11.50 but less than 13.00
1%
Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive
0%
More than 14.50
0%

What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate on 16 December 2022?

29 Forecasters • 147 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 16, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 100.00
0%
Between 100.00 and 110.00, inclusive
0%
Higher than 110.00 but lower than 120.00
3%
Between 120.00 and 130.00, inclusive
24%
Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00
53%
Between 140.00 and 150.00, inclusive
19%
Higher than 150.00 but lower than 160.00
1%
160.00 or more
0%
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